Two of my high school summers involved working on my uncle’s and cousin’s farms. Growing dryland wheat in north-central Montana is a challenge. The way they did it back then was to alternate strips of land. Half of the land was planted with hard red winter wheat that grew throughout the summer. The other half was kept bare. We controlled the weeds on the bare ground by pulling a cultivator with a tractor. With no weeds, the soil could trap moisture used in the next growing season. Wheat would be planted in the fall after the other strips were harvested, and the stubble from the harvest would be worked back into the ground to be kept bare for a year before being planted again.

My days began with an early breakfast, followed by a drive to the field in a service truck. I’d use a transfer pump to fill the tractor with diesel while I checked the oil and greased the machine's fittings. The rest of my day was spent driving around the field, pulling the cultivator. We worked mile-long strips, and one neighbor had three-mile-long strips. A tractor pulling a toolbar doesn’t go very fast. Driving straight for a mile between corners induces boredom. Straying from the straight, however, costs money. It wastes energy to have an overlap that is too large. A skip allows weeds to grow and pull moisture from the soil.

When harvest came, all hands on the farm switched to getting the wheat from the fields to the bins. I never drove combine for more than a few rounds. My role was to drive a straight truck alongside the operating combines so they could empty their hoppers into the truck box. It took precision driving. I had to stay close enough for the auger on the combine to reach and far enough away to avoid collision with the combine. I had to pay attention to the load in the truck, making sure that it was even front to back, left to right. When the truck was full, I had to make a quick trip to the bins and empty the grain before returning to the field. Two trucks could keep up with one combine when working close to the bins. When we had to drive a bit farther, it took three trucks for each combine.

Things are different these days. Tractors combines, and trucks are much bigger. The farms are much bigger, too. Fewer workers are covering more ground. Many farmers use a crop rotation that adds nutrients to the soil and minimizes tillage to preserve soil moisture.

The formula for farm profit is similar, however. Wheat is stored in hopes of getting the best price. When it is sold, it is shipped. Wheat from the farms I worked was loaded onto trains heading west. At the Columbia River, it was loaded onto barges for transfer to ocean-going vessels for export.

The United States produces more corn, soybeans, wheat, and other agricultural products than we consume. Farming profits depend on exports, and farmers rely on imported products, including fuel, fertilizer, and machinery parts. Agriculture is an international business.

I didn’t fully understand the wheat markets when I was a teen driving around and around the field. But I could tell you which years had seen high wheat prices. It was easy. When the price was up, farmers bought new equipment. We used to joke about a neighbor who got a new pickup when wheat was above $5 per bushel and drove the old one in the off years. My father’s purchase of pickups followed the same pattern. He was a farm machinery dealer, and his income rose and fell with farm incomes.

I still don’t fully understand commodity markets. They are complex with the buying and selling of futures. However, it doesn’t require complete understanding to see the impact of tariffs and threats of tariffs on the price of grain. Corn and soybean prices are off by about 10% with the threat of tariffs. Wheat prices have been trending downward since the most recent highs reached in 2022 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The current US price for wheat is between $5.49 and $5.52. There won’t be many new pickups in farm country. In the years when I was working on the farm and joking about the neighbor’s new pickups, a pickup truck cost less than $3,000, and wheat was bringing in $5. Even with ten percent higher prices, it takes a lot more bushels to buy a $70,000 pickup.

The diesel price for that pickup is trending downward for the third straight year, influenced by lower crude oil prices and increased refinery capacity. Projections suggest an average price of $3.61 per gallon, though tariff threats make accurate projections nearly impossible.

In a recent address to Congress, the US President said he loves farmers. However, that “love” is hard for farmers to feel when tariff threats are closing off markets, costing billions of dollars in lost revenue, and affecting the bottom line of every farm and ranch operation. The financially devastating effects of a trade war will undoubtedly result in the financial failure of more family farms. When family farms go under, the land is bought by larger farms controlled by large corporations. The population of rural counties declines, schools suffer from fewer students and lower funding levels, and local merchants have fewer customers. Small towns across rural America are being abandoned.

Losses for Canadian farmers match the pain US farmers are feeling. Trade wars are wars that no one wins.

I know that we can’t go back to the days when a teenager practiced driving by pulling a cultivator around and around the field before spending a few weeks driving an old farm truck in close confines with the most expensive piece of machinery on the farm. History doesn’t go into reverse. It would help, however, if policymakers would at least study history a bit and try to avoid past mistakes. I fear that hard times are ahead for farmers.