Having been raised in an aviation family and having been a pilot myself for many years, I have learned to pay attention to official accident reports when an incident or accident involving an airplane has occurred. I have also learned to take news reports with a grain of salt. When a tragedy occurs, which in aviation is usually an accident involving loss of life, people are quick to seek answers. They want to know what happened, what caused the accident, and how to avoid such a tragedy occurring to them. Pilots share that concern. What can be learned from this situation that will make flying safer? How can I learn from the mistakes of others? Is there something mechanically wrong that should be corrected in other aircraft before they return to service?

The problem with general news when it comes to accidents is that careful and thorough investigation takes time. The news media is interested in quick answers. The attention span of the public is short. After a few days in the headlines, the cycle of news moves on. This means that often what we can learn from reading newspapers and websites is only part of the story. When it comes to aviation news, I have found a few trusted sources that deliver facts, avoid speculation, and offer follow-up news as official reports from the Federal Aviation Administration and the National Transportation Safety Board are released.

Applying what I have learned from the world of aviation to boating, I am confident that those of us who have learned from the news about the tragic sinking of the luxury yacht Bayesian, resulting in the deaths of seven people, do not have information to draw conclusions. Investigators are working hard to learn what they can, but the ship is still at the bottom of the ocean, 50 meters underwater. Electronic devices that contain critical information have yet to be recovered. The ship is largely intact, which should provide investigators with additional information, but raising the wreck will be a huge and expensive task.

Investigators have access to other critical information that is sometimes lost in accidents. The captain and the crew members who would have been responsible for keeping watch, managing the safety of passengers in the event of the need to abandon ship, and other duties, all survived. The only crew member among the victims was the ships cook.The other victims included the owner, his daughter, and some of the guests. Surviving crew members can be interviewed about details. Human memory, especially memories of those who have experienced trauma, however, is imperfect. Investigators will need to gain information from multiple sources and weigh the psychological effects of the tragedy on the survivors as they seek to understand what happened.

Of special interest to investigators will be the events of 16 critical minutes. 16 minutes passed between the time the ship lost electrical power showing that areas of the ship with electrical circuits had been flooded and the time the GPS signal was lost, indicating the moment the ship sank. 16 minutes is a significant amount of time to assemble all people on board, distribute life jackets, load and launch a lifeboat. However, divers located the bodies of the owner and his daughter inside of cabins inside of the ship indicating that they may not have been aware of the crisis in time to get up on deck.

There are also many other unanswered questions. Independent observers have noted the severe thunderstorms that were part of the ships distress. However, one report I read spoke of a waterspout. Another reported a microburst. Those are two different phenomena to which the ship would have responded differently. Since the ship was at anchor, it would have faced directly into a microburst, while a waterspout might have caused it to spin sideways to the weather.

The ship was of modern design and should have had hatches and bulkheads that could be secured to prevent water from entering the ship even in the most severe conditions. Even having the ship blown over on its side should not have caused sinking if all hatches and bulkhead doors were properly secured. Were there hatches left open despite the approaching storm? Since other ships and their crews in the area retreated to safety, what preparations did the crew of the ship take before the storm bore down on them. Were they aware of the coming weather? A crew member should have been responsible to monitor weather using the onboard radar and other equipment.

It appears that the ships keel was retracted at the time of the accident, something that certainly would have affected its stability given the height of the mast. The ship was equipped with the world’s tallest aluminum mast. If indeed the keel was retracted, why was it not lowered? It is possible that lowering the keel required electrical power and that the crew did not attempt to lower it before power was lost.

I could continue to speculate more and more. In a press conference local prosecutors said they have begun an investigation into potential crimes of manslaughter and negligent shipwreck. While it is appropriate for prosecutors to investigate, it is premature for the public to reach conclusions. The ship’s captain was an experienced and well-respected mariner. If he somehow was responsible for a series of catastrophic errors, it would be out of character. The trade union Nautilus, which represents seafarers and captains, has called for restraint in passing judgment.

Despite our urge to know what happened and desire to prevent other tragedies of the type that resulted in the deaths of seven people, we have to be patient as we wait for the results of investigations. The press has already begun to leave the area. There seems to be little for them to report. Soon the story will disappear from the newsfeeds and headlines. Our attention will be diverted before the truth can be discerned.

I hope that mariners and ships captains are diligent in reading accident reports just as I have learned to be when it comes to airplane accidents. The process of uncovering the truth and learning any lessons from the sinking will take time. Hopefully there will be many who have the patience to reserve judgment and wait for more facts to be known.